The MouseDoc and I want to have a little bit of fun in anticipation of the late-breakers at ECTRIMS and at the same time do a thought experiment.
We want to see how wise the crowd is when it comes to predicting trial results.
Aware crowds may be wiser than individuals. In the book ‘The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations’ James Surowiecki argues that the aggregation of information in groups, results in decisions that are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group. He opens the book with an anecdote about Francis Galton’s surprise that the crowd at a county fair accurately guessed the weight of an ox when their individual guesses were averaged (the average was closer to the ox’s true butchered weight than the estimates of most crowd members).
We want to see how wise you are when it comes to guessing the outcome of the two phase 3 trials programmes being presented at ECTRIMS. We know they are positive, but how positive is the question? To make it a competition we will be giving away two prizes; a lego MRI scanner set or one of our #ThinkSocial Bart-MS T-shirts. You can choose your prize.
Study 1: Oral Ponesimod Versus Teriflunomide In Relapsing MUltiple Sclerosis (OPTIMUM)
Please note the Janssen Pharmaceutical Company announced positive top-line results stating the study met its primary and most secondary endpoints. As you know ponesimod is a second-generationn S1P modulator. The question is how good will it be compared to Teriflunomide? It may help to remind you that fingolimod, the first licensed S1P modulator, reduced the annualised relapse rate by 52% compared to interferon-beta-1a (Avonex) in the TRANSFORMS study, but had no significant effect on disability progression.
Study 2: Efficacy and Safety of Ofatumumab Compared to Teriflunomide in Patients With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (ASCLEPIOS I & II)
Novartis has announced that both of their phase 3 trials of ofatumumab vs. teriflunomide met their primary outcome. In ASCLEPIOS I and II, ofatumumab (OMB157) met primary endpoints to reduce the annualized relapse rate over Aubagio (teriflunomide) in patients with relapsing forms of MS (RMS) and that key secondary endpoints of delaying time to confirmed disability progression were also met.
Ofatumumab is a 3rd-generation anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody. Ocrelizumab is already licensed and was compared to interferon-beta-1a (Rebif) in two parallel phase 3 trials (OPERA I & II); ocrelizumab reduced the annualised relapse rate by 47% and the rate of 3-month confirmed disability progression by 40% compared to interferon-beta in these trials.
I have recently argued that ofatumumab may be underdosed and that as a result, it won’t do as well against teriflunomide (which has similar efficacy to Rebif), compared to what ocrelizumab did against Rebif. Do you agree with me or not?
So please complete the survey below and leave your email address and name if you want to enter the draw for the prize.
MD Here….I asked a question in the comments