We are failing, not just because health case systems are being over run, but the tragedy is that we have stopped testing. This study indicates that about 80% of the people infected are not being detected because the symptoms are very mild and so it says the actual death rate is lower that the figures suggest. But it also says that there are many people who do not know they are infected and therefore are not isolating and infecting. Therefore ensure social distancing.
This situation is being changed and I know that we are sending our equipment to testing centres.
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Pastore Y Piontti A, Mu K, Rossi L, Sun K, Viboud C, Xiong X, Yu H, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr, Vespignani A. Science. 2020 pii: eaba9757.
Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated based on internationally reported cases, and shows that at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in Mainland China, but has a more marked effect at the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
Figures released from US .Mortality is highest in the over 85 years old, 3-11% 65-84, about 1-3% 54-65 20-54 <1%