#COVIDMS The need for testing and isolating

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We are failing, not just because health case systems are being over run, but the tragedy is that we have stopped testing. This study indicates that about 80% of the people infected are not being detected because the symptoms are very mild and so it says the actual death rate is lower that the figures suggest. But it also says that there are many people who do not know they are infected and therefore are not isolating and infecting. Therefore ensure social distancing.

This situation is being changed and I know that we are sending our equipment to testing centres.

The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Pastore Y Piontti A, Mu K, Rossi L, Sun K, Viboud C, Xiong X, Yu H, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr, Vespignani A. Science. 2020 pii: eaba9757.

Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated based on internationally reported cases, and shows that at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in Mainland China, but has a more marked effect at the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

Figures released from US .Mortality is highest in the over 85 years old, 3-11% 65-84, about 1-3% 54-65 20-54 <1%

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MouseDoctor

3 comments

  • Just to be clear – you are asking people to live in a jungle for a year? How realistic is that?

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-advisers/uk-social-distancing-measures-may-last-a-year-government-advisers-say-idUKKBN217219

    My thoughts go against yours on this matter actually: damage control. We are more likely to be infected that not, so we are better off preparing our defenses than crossing fingers and hopping for the best.

    • Dear Tony I am asking people to think. We are certainly not prepared and doing what we can to slow things down, whilst we prepare is the key issue. We are seeing triaging in Italy who get opion of treatmeent who does not. If people have been infected and are clear they should be doing what they can, but do you know if you are immune or not, no. If we believe what we are told this will apear in a couple of weeks. We all have a social responsibility.

      We have been taking about soical distancing but if some a-hole hadn’t coughed in my MrsMD’s face from six inches, I wouldnt be stuck in isolation but there you go. Is it a cold is it a killer? I will remove any thoughts

  • It needs to stress that the first signs are actually GI problems before the respiratory complications following infection. This might give us more time to treat.

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