COVID Breakfast. Why UK Government advice has not been Science-Based…Which sounds better than saying it is a pile of ****ocks

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If you are Social distancing and you heed the UK government advice that you are OK to be out and about after 7 days…..you just have to read this paper to see why this view has had more holes in it than the holiest of Swiss Cheeses.

I must say that this has been clear to me for a long, long time….well forever actually. So as you know people often produce (infective) virus for more than seven days, so keep you guard up at all times.

Ong EZ et al Cell Host & Microbe 2020 27:1. Asymptomaitc, minor sysmptoms the + is the days a positive swab was got from the nose I count 18 days straight.

Likewise, if you have had the virus…consider others, as you may be a “Dirty Bomb” especially if you are older….That’s why the Government has ensured we have has a good old clear out of Care-Homes. Is this the advice from Domonic Cummmins to get the Pension bill down:-(

Dynamic profile of RT-PCR findings from 301 COVID-19 patients in Wuhan, China: A descriptive study. Xiao AT, Tong YX, Gao C, Zhu L, Zhang YJ, Zhang S. J Clin Virol. 2020 Apr 11;127:104346.

BACKGROUND:With the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, its effect on society is amplified. We aimed to describe the viral detection results across different timepoints throughout the disease course.

METHODS:A retrospective study of 301 confirmed COVID-19 patients hospitalized at Tongji Hospital in Wuhan, China, were included. Demographic characteristics of the patients were collected. Upper respiratory specimens (throat and/or nasal swabs) were obtained and analyzed by real-time RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Period of viral infection and the contagious stage were analyzed.

RESULTS:Of 301 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, the median age was 58 years and 51.2 % were male. The median period between symptoms presence and positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR results was 16 days (IQR, 10-23, N = 301). The median period between symptoms presence and an effective negative SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR result was 20 days (IQR, 17-24; N = 216). Infected patient ≥65 years old stayed contagious longer (22 days vs 19 days, p = 0.015). Although two consecutive negative results were confirmed in 70 patients, 30 % of them had positive viral test results for the third time. Using specimens from nasal swabs to run the RT-PCR test showed a higher positive rate than using specimens from throat swabs.

CONCLUSIONS: This large-scale investigation with 1113 RT-PCR test results from 301 COVID-19 patients showed that the average contagious period of SARS-CoV-2 infected patients was 20 days. Longer observation period and more than 2 series of negative viral test are necessary for patients ≥65 years.

Masks and COVID currently over 100 papers on the subject

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MouseDoctor

6 comments

  • Similar observation from a cohort of 1162
    swab positive COVID patients with extensive FU in Italy in the city of Reggio Emilia. 1/5 negative swab false negative if tested prematurely. Optimal timeline was 30 days from diagnosis and 36 from disease onset to obtain negative swab in nearly 100% of patients.

    • Thanks for you insight. The same is a problem with the antibody testing, do it too early and you are negative. Where was this information when I needed it…Mrs Mouse was refused an NHS test because she did not have classic signs (Fever and cough) and they had a 7 day limit and as a result one less NHS staff member when you need them..Pathectic

  • “The median period between symptoms presence and positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR results was 16 days”

    Does this mean that many people with symptoms who are rapidly tested will be negative at the point of testing, to become positive later, having in the interim gone to work or not isolated at home and spread the virus around?

    • Yes this is the implication and I am sure this is true. However on reading this it suggest the study was using a rubiish kit because if you have symptoms you have the virus and taking 16 days to show can’t be right as most people are better within a week, However I used it to make the point that the 7 day lock down is an absolute nonsence. There are countless publications demonstrating viral shedding for more than 7 days.

  • I also wonder how different clearance of the virus will be in those not unwell enough to be admitted?

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